Today is Purim, the Jewish calendar’s, most raucous, delirious - and anxious - holiday, all rolled into one - and it’s all about Persia. As I write this on Tuesday midday - right now - more rockets are being fired at Israel by a supposedly decapitated enemy with a nuclear program that was supposedly “obliterated” last June. Thus far over 1,500 alerts have been triggered by Iran missile firings since Saturday in Israeli villages and cities, sending people scurrying into shelters, and even there security is not guaranteed, as people in Bet Shemesh unfortunately discovered on Sunday, when nine were killed.1
This feels either like some kind of Purim-Haman plot to destroy the Jewish people from two thousand years ago. And yet, so many Israelis are exuberant, even as Americans, Israelis and Iranians bury their dead, the whole region is blowing up and Trump proclaims with confidence that this thing will be over in a few days….or is it four weeks?…Certainly by Easter!
Easter? Easter… Where have we heard that before?
Yes, back during the early days of Covid, in March 2020, Donald Trump called himself a “wartime president.” So we have experienced Trump as a “wartime” leader, and the experience was not good. We have precedent for this president’s ineptitude as a leader during emergencies. If you look closely at him right now, he is scared to death.
And even if the benefits of the decision to attack Iran turn out to outweigh the costs, I stand my “Hammerman Doctrine” articulated during last year’s Iran 12-day bombing run:
I will never give Donald Trump credit for anything - even acts that prove to be for the betterment of humankind - because his ultimate goal is to end American liberal democracy,2 which would be disastrous for America and the world. Trumpism is a virulent autocratic agenda, fascist to the core, and the only way to defeat it is through complete vigilance, all day, every day.
In case you’ve forgotten that, read this:
I can say that, even as I pray for the diabolical Iranian regime to fall and be replaced by a peaceful, more democratic alternative. I can chew gum and curse Haman at the same time. I’m not at all confident that Mr. Wartime President can accomplish what even a more stable, geniusy person like every president other than him could not. Remember: The last time he led us into battle, he was heavily armed with Clorox.
There are many ways to evaluate the war on Iran and it is foolish to make snap assessments just a few days in. So I’m not going to do that. Thomas Friedman’s framing of the main issues was spot on. He makes four assertions3 that highlight the complexity of the current situation, synthesizing a desire that the Iranian regime be at least declawed without enabling Trump and Bibi to continue to degrade democracy here in the US and in Israel.
Why did Trump and Netanyahu attack Iran now, when it is clear that there was no immediate existential danger to either country? Timothy Snyder explains it on his Substack:
A war is a time when we will be told not to ask questions. But a war is actually when questions must be asked. And they must be asked in light of what we already know. The presumption created by the surrounding evidence is that this war could very well be about (1) subverting US democracy, (2) enriching the president, or both. These are presumptions, not proof — but they provide the solid lines of inquiry as we learn more about the war. War does not create a clean slate where suddenly we have to believe the absurd just because a leader says it. On the contrary, war provides the opportunity to see the core of the absurdity and the destruction that is being offered to us.
So let me add a few observations, framing it from the perspective of my expertise, in a “traditional” Jewish manner, asking whether what’s going on is “Good for the Jews.” Yes, i know it’s the very essence of chutzpah to ask what the impact of a global event of this magnitude will be on a group that constitutes 0.2% of the world’s total population. But that’s just who we are :) My answers might seem internally inconsistent - but if Purim teaches us nothing else, it’s that life is messy.
So here goes:
We are safer: The world is potentially safer with a decapitated and defanged Iranian leadership. It could potentially weaken forces for disruption and have negative geopolitical consequences for Russia. That would make the world safer for Jews too. But a weakened Iran is not necessarily going to be a democratic Iran. So it remains to be seen what the region will look like.
2. Justice has been served. The Ayatollah was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent Iranians and others - Google’s AI says up to a million. Probably more. He mowed down thousands of his own people in just the past few weeks. There is no defending him - and no defending anyone who defends him. Where justice prevails, Jewish values prevail as well.
3. We are less safe: An emboldened Donald Trump could be the greatest force for disruption on earth right now whose name isn’t Putin. And once again he’s been enabled by his cronies in Congress to rip up the Constitution by not consulting with them. That poses a grave danger to the rule of law. Jews like the rule of law.
We are less safe: Paradoxically, while Israel has vanquished all its regional foes, Jews are less safe anywhere in the world than at any time in my lifetime. I do not make that statement lightly. True, I did not live during the Holocaust, the Crusades, the Black Death or the Inquisition. But in my lifetime I can not think of a time when, as a Jew, I felt less safe - anywhere.
That includes Israel, which rules the skies a thousand miles from its borders but can’t seem to destroy Hamas right next door or stop rockets from harming its citizens. Right now, as we speak, the State Department is calling on American citizens to evacuate Israel. We’re talking about hundreds of thousands of Americans, most with dual citizenship, many who have lived through, God knows, maybe dozen wars. Is it that dangerous? What gives? I’ll show you. Look at the map below. This show locations of missile “red alerts” during the first 24 hours of the war.
As mentioned above, Israelis have endured over 1,500 “red alert” alarms over the past three days, each one sending people to their shelters and, at some point later, to their therapists. What Israel has gained over the past couple of years in deterrence - which is substantial - it has lost in the potential for coexistence and peace - including peace of mind. The long-term impact of these years of continuous existential struggle has already been dramatic, as Yair Rosenberg wrote this week in the Atlantic, The Israel of October 6 Is Never Coming Back. Israel can no longer abide by a policy of caution and containment:
The Hamas massacre of October 7—whose atrocities were broadcast online by its perpetrators and seared into the Israeli consciousness—upended and discredited this approach. With Israel’s borderlands in ruins and hundreds of its citizens taken hostage, the country’s voters could no longer countenance their leader’s quietism, which now looked like a historic blunder. An Israeli public that had elected Netanyahu to steward its security now felt profoundly insecure and demanded dramatic action. To respond to the attack was not enough; the government needed to ensure that others like it would never happen, by confronting threats at their source.
Here’s the newest New Normal. On Monday night, Israelis heard the Scroll of Esther while praying in bomb shelters - like this one in a parking garage in central Tel Aviv (click to play). Fun.
Nowhere on earth is it safe to be a Jew these days.4 Yes, even Antarctica.
The good news is that most people still don’t hate us. The bad news is that those who do now have been given the green light to show it. Jews (yes all Jews, not just Israelis or self-proclaimed Zionists) are now in danger of becoming the bogeymen for the three quarters (73 percent) of all Americans (including many Jews) who did not support war with Iran in a recent YouGov poll. Israel is increasingly being seen by both the left and right as having driven the US into this battle. Trump denied it today, which means it probably has more truth to it than we would wish for.
What makes this all even sadder is that not only is Israel hardly the refuge it was meant to be, but its leadership has shown that American Jews are expendable to them. Netanyahu’s cronies care about antisemitism only when it comes from the left and their actions will do nothing to make our lives safer, all the while alienating an entire generation of our kids. A January Conference on Antisemitism, held in Jerusalem, was a right-wing love fest, a Star Wars bar scene brought to you by the people who celebrate Victor Orban, one of the most vicious antisemites on this planet.
So it’s not safe in Israel, and certainly not in America, where many associate Jews with various Epstein conspiracy theories, which is as logical as blaming all atheists for the Unabomber. True, the Epstein billionaire class includes shady types that make me cringe, who happen to identify as Jewish, like the Ellisons, whose goal appears to be to turn CNN and CBS in to Fox Jr.5 On the right there’s Tucker Carlson and his eugenics obsession and on the left, the defenders of Hamas. And now, Iran is releasing its terror cells - which may have led to the mass shooting in Austin. We’ve got neo-Nazis and Iranian terror and all that stuff on campuses. And now increasingly this hate is trickling down to middle America.
The problem is that when you have all these sources of antisemitism from all over the political map, they validate and embolden one another. Tucker Carlson, Linda Sarsour, and Jeremy Corbyn could never have coffee together, but their combined hatred reinforces those crazies who might be considering attacking Jews and their institutions, verbally or physically. They feed off of each other.
Sadly, the killing of Sinwar, Nasrallah and the Ayatollah hasn’t changed that, just as the killing of Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein didn’t end anti-Americanism. It only led to the growth of ISIS, which is the kind of thing that might happen this time.
However, if all goes relatively well, Israel will have a chance to establish closer ties with its neighbors…if it is ready to accommodate with the Palestinians. Meanwhile, even as nearly the entire Middle East is on Israel’s side of this war, and, unlike the first Gulf War, Israel isn’t being asked to sit on its hands this time out of respect to those countries who hate it, old habits die hard.
Notice which country is conspicuously missing from this headline in the National, a newspaper out of Abu Dhabi. “Arab states and US united…..” someone is missing here.
Israel will have its precious deterrence when Trump is long gone and this chapter concludes.
But will it ever have peace?
How can Purim help us through these treacherous times?
Here’s a little Purim backgrounder to download, for those who are curious:
You can find the Book of Esther here. and below, listen to it being read in a very fun and creative way last night at B’nai Jeshurun in New York. it’s a mitzvah to hear every word!
Given the apprehension that has filled our lives, it is hard to shift our sights to the merriment of Purim. Fortunately, Purim itself shows us the way. teaching us how to survive in a dangerous world. All too often, Jewish communities and others have faced catastrophe. Occasionally, miraculous interventions have enabled us to avert certain doom. Based on the Talmudic idea of saying blessings at places where narrow escapes have happened, the custom arose for communities to celebrate anniversaries of Purim-like events. These became known as “Special Purims.”
Pardon the Purim pun, but there are lots of them. Take your pick.... and as you do, think of all the Purims that could not be celebrated - and the Purims yet-to-come. Destiny seems to ride on the luck of the draw, for Jews and others. We just keep on drawing those lots. Check out a few of these Special Purims (see notes below).6
One more thought about Purim - and Adar, the most joyous month of the Jewish calendar. Despite it all, be happy!
Even as I fretted this weekend over the events in Israel and Iran, I heard a symphonic array of birds on my morning walk on Sunday, and it reminded me that March has begun. I checked my bird ID app and here’s what I was hearing around me:
In Conclusion
It remains to be seen whether this attack on Iran succeeds in making the world a safe place for everyone and Israel a safer place for Jews. But when people begin asking the hard questions - which will happen about five minutes after something goes wrong - what is plainly obvious already will become even more obvious. This attack didn’t have to happen - at least not now.
I’m hopeful that whatever happens in Iran will matter when Americans vote in November - unless we allow Trump to use this as an excuse to delay or deny that vote. Ironically, in doing so, he would be mimicking the Iranian autocrats he is currently trying to depose. Israel’s political situation is more complicated, but I pray they have the wisdom to replace their current government, no matter how this war plays out, because this government’s ultimate goals remain unchanged, and one of them is to subvert Israeli democracy and the other is to keep Bibi out of jail.
Meanwhile, synagogues across the world, and especially in America, had best triple their security budget and make sure the local police show up in uniform in the weeks to come, as Passover approaches. I would never suggest that people stay away from services and other gatherings. That would be giving in to fear. But I am very concerned.
I’m not saying we should despair. The Purim story is illustrative. Things were even more hopeless for the Jews of Persia, who faced a royal decree of total decimation (sort of like the Hamas Charter, but with a sell-by date). But fighting a war of self defense and led by a woman of other-worldly courage and a man with unimaginable integrity (something so lacking among our leaders now), the Jewish people prevailed. I am confident that things will work out for the best here too, for Jews, Americans and maybe - hopefully - even the Iranian people, who have suffered so much.
But it’s going to be a rough ride, and anyone who promises otherwise is taking us all for fools.
Hold on tight.
Bet Shemesh headlines:
If you don’t get that, it’s time for you to bone up on Project 2025. See below.
In the spirit of the Passover season we are approaching, he makes four assertions:
First, I hope this effort to topple the clerical regime in Tehran succeeds. It is a regime that murders its people, destabilizes its neighbors and has destroyed a great civilization. There is no single event that would do more to put the whole Middle East on a more decent, inclusive trajectory than the replacement of Tehran’s Islamic regime with a leadership focused exclusively on enabling the people of Iran to realize their full potential with a real voice in their own future.
Second, this will not be easy, because this regime is deeply entrenched and is hardly going to be toppled from the air alone. Israel has not been able to eliminate Hamas in Gaza after over two years of a merciless air and ground war — and Hamas is right next door. That said, even if this U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran does not lead to the uprising by the Iranian people that President Trump has urged, it could have other, unanticipated, beneficial effects, like producing an Islamic Republic 2.0 that is much less threatening to its people and neighbors. But it just as easily could result in unanticipated dangers, like the disintegration of Iran as a single geographic entity.
Third, we must remember that the timing of the end of this war will be determined as much by the oil markets and the financial markets as by the military state of play inside Iran. Iran is on the edge of economic collapse, with a currency worth little more than wallpaper. Europe has become much more dependent on liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf to run its economies, since phasing out purchases of natural gas from Russia. A sustained burst of inflation caused by higher energy prices would anger Trump’s base, many of whom already don’t like being dragged into another Middle East war. There are a lot of people who will want this war to be short, and that will impact how and when Trump and Tehran negotiate.
Fourth, we must not let this war to bring democracy and the rule of law to Iran distract us from the threats to democracy and the rule of law posed by Trump in America and by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. Trump wants to promote those ideals in Tehran, even as his ICE agents operated for two months with limited regard for legal restraints in my home state of Minnesota and as he floats ideas about restricting who can vote in our next election. If the war in Iran enables Netanyahu to win the Israeli elections planned for this year, it will be a major propellant to his efforts to annex the West Bank, cripple the Israeli Supreme Court and make Israel an apartheid state, which would be a major blow to American interests in the region beyond Iran.
Of all the places I’ve ever been, perhaps India - and specifically Kochi (formerly Cochin) - ranks up there as a place where Jews have historically prospered and should feel safe now. I could attend synagogue there. But I would have very little company. Only a handful of elderly Jews remain there. Most of Kochi’s 15,000 Jews packed up and moved to Israel, where they sit in bomb shelters today as Iranian missiles rain down on the entire country.
It makes me cringe that he was raised as a Jew, but at least Larry Ellison refused to have a bar mitzvah. So there’s that.
Special Purims.
Purim of Abraham Danzig (called also Pulverpurim=”Powder Purim”):
Purim of Ancona:
Purim of Angora:
Purim Borghel:
Purim di Buda.
Purim of Cairo:
Purim of Candia:
Purim of Chios (called also Purim de la Señora = “of the Good Lady”):
Purim de los Christianos (called also Purim de las Bombas):
Purim Edom (called also Purim al-Naāra):
Purim of Florence:
Purim di Fuoco.
Purim Fürhang (Curtain Purim):
Purim of Gumeldjina (popularly called Purim de los Ladrones = “Purim of Bandits”):
Purim of Jonathan b. Jacob of Fulda:
Purim of Lepanto:
Purim of Narbonne:
Purim of Padua:
Purim Povidl (Plum-Jam Purim):
Purim of Rhodes:
Purim of Saragossa:
Purim Sherif:
Purim of Shiraz (called also Purim of Mo’ed Ḳaṭan):
Purim of Tammuz at Algiers:
Purim of Tiberias:
Purim of Tripoli:
Purim of Widdin:
Purim Winz (called also Purim Frankfurt):
Purim of Yom-Ṭob Lipmann Heller:
