Tweet by Eran Etzion https://www.mei.edu/profile/eran-etzion
Netanyahu's strategy - and what are we doing about it?
https://x.com/eranetzion/status/1820477182466015473
Everyone recites that "Netanyahu has no strategy". This is not true. Netanyahu has a clear strategy, which has one overriding purpose - to survive in power, at any cost. Of course, he must hide and disguise this strategy from the Israeli public, from the American administration, from Arab rulers and from the entire world, except for his circle of servants.
To this end, he operates according to a doctrine that can be called "destructive ambiguity". Ambiguity is destructive.
In order to achieve this purpose, and according to this doctrine, he decrees the following goals -
1. The continuation of the war in Gaza under the unmeasurable and achievable title of "eliminating Hamas". Under certain conditions, it is possible that the possibility of carrying out a mass deportation to Egypt will be opened, supposedly not on an Israeli initiative, but "as a result of developments on the ground".
2. The escalation of the war against Hezbollah, without setting clear goals for the war against the organization. This is knowing that Israel does not have the ability to defeat Hezbollah, nor to "remove the threat" by military means alone and over time. The organizing idea here too is open ended war. "Life on the sword", eternal war. When will we know we won? Only when Netanyahu says it. When will Netanyahu say that? Never.
3. Dragging Iran into the war, according to the "head of the snake" concept. What are the goals of the war against Iran? In my estimation, Netanyahu will choose destructive ambiguity here as well. As even Yaakov Amidror, the former head of the National Assembly and a clear supporter of Netanyahu, said - "Iran is bigger than us by three numbers". Israel alone can at most "extort a price" from Iran. And of course Iran will exact heavier prices from Israel. It has already exacted such in all sectors Since the 7/10..... and it will soon back up much more. So what is Netanyahu planning to drag the USA into the war?
4. Dragging the US into war with Iran has been Netanyahu's goal for several decades. He of course - destructive ambiguity, did we say that? - will never be caught saying this, and is very careful to say the opposite "Israel will defend itself, we have never asked and we will never ask that American soldiers will protect us." But the Americans understood this a long time ago. The entire struggle between Netanyahu and Obama was based on this understanding, along with the late understanding of the Americans that Netanyahu is also lying to them about the Palestinian issue.
But - what do the Christians say? Are these the most beautiful times in our history? - The stars are aligning for Netanyahu so that he is closer than ever to realizing this goal. The assassination of Haniyeh inside the guarded compound of the Revolutionary Guards, and on the day of the inauguration of the new pragmatic president, played up the cards and brought the direct and extensive conflict between the US and Iran very close.
5. What would such a conflict look like and how would it end? This requires a separate thread, but it is clear that the USA will do everything to avoid being dragged into a war, and if it is dragged into a war, it will try to reduce and shorten it. The problem is that under the conditions that Netanyahu has created, even the most powerful power in the world will find it difficult to control the escalation and determine the terms of the end. Enter - Russia and China And maybe also - Enter Trump.
6. Meanwhile, in the West Bank, the settlers are rampaging with the backing of the government, the IDF and the police, and are also approaching the tipping point of the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and a slide into chaos. It is clear that as an intense war flares up in the north and east, the chance of a third intifada breaking out, with the involvement of the Palestinian security forces, will increase. But also about all this? You will not hear a word from Netanyahu. Destructive ambiguity at its best. The hill boys will play before us...
7. And - last but absolutely not least - the coup d'état. The one about which Netanyahu also maintains total silence, as far as he is concerned, there is no such thing at all, but it is spreading everywhere and consuming democratic Israel from the inside.
8. Netanyahu makes all these big moves as if he were the sole ruler of a dictatorship. He does not convene the government, nor the cabinet, for necessary discussions according to the law. He does not hold votes on the fateful moves. He does not define war goals in the various sectors. In short - he acts as if Israel is not a democracy, as if there is no law and justice, and as if the Agrant Committee Report, the Winograd Committee Report, the Miron Report and the Submarines and Vessels Report never existed. What do these reports say - that a prime minister must convene the cabinet and the government, must consider all policy alternatives, must set clear and achievable war goals, must weigh all considerations - political, security, economic, legal, psychological, and social. Must allow all members of the profession to express their positions, must allow the MLA to include regular staff work, must avoid making decisions behind the back of the security system, since otherwise he "endangers the security of the state and foreign relations" (Submarines and Vessels Committee), and must plan the course of war and statesmanship in a long-term view. In practice - it works exactly the opposite.
8. So we clarified that Netanyahu also has a strategy, which is survival in power at any cost. We briefly clarified that he acts as a dictator and crushes the democratic institutions, the professional level in the fields of security, foreign affairs, law and economics, and the decision-making processes. We also clarified some of the prices that we all pay and God forbid we will pay more, if we don't stand up and oppose it. With all the civil strength of the Israeli majority.
9. So what do we do - in the face of Netanyahu's destructive ambiguity, we place ** constructive clarity ** -
A. Stop saying that Netanyahu has no strategy. They explain that it has, and explain what it is, and the crazy and unbearable prices it charges us.
B. We demand that each and every minister in the government fulfill his/her legal, public, moral and historical responsibility, and not allow Netanyahu to act according to this strategy. A minister's silence is consent, and the bill will be submitted to him/her. For example - the fact that until today there has been no discussion in the cabinet about the war in the north, and as far as is known, not about the war with Iran either - is a breach of trust of the worst kind, and it alone justifies Netanyahu's impeachment.
third. The abductee deal must be immediately put to a vote in the government, in the form agreed upon with the mediators and with Hamas, without the "goats" that Netanyahu stuck in later.
d. We demand that the Minister of Defense, the Chief of Staff, all members of the General Staff and all the heads of the security and intelligence organizations, as well as the spokesperson for the government, do not agree with Netanyahu's actions, which are carried out with a lack of authority and a conflict of interest vis-à-vis the State of Israel.
God. Citizens are organizing in preparation for the possibility that Netanyahu will try to fire the Minister of Defense and/or one of the heads of the security organizations.
and. We demand that the Israeli media - not including the bibists - present the reality in all its seriousness and danger.
G. refuse to surrender. Not to Netanyahu, not to despair, not to fatalism. Netanyahu and his partners dug us a deep and terrible pit. But we have the power to get out of it, and we will.
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